© 2024 Wolfersdorff Consulting Berlin
Dear colleagues & friends of recovered Carbon Black,
We are in the days between the years. Maybe you have taken off some days for time with your family. Maybe, like me, you are working (a little bit) between Christmas and New Years Eve.
Maybe you are curious about some rCB News, so here is your December dose of recovered Carbon Black news. We currently have6,934 subscribers and we have 862 members in the LinkedIn rCB group Martin & friends: recovered Carbon Black "rCB" and tyre pyrolysis.
Overview
rCB demand and supply
Global rCB demand and supply
Let's talk about rCB demand and supply!
When in 2022 I worked with Michelin and Bridgestone on the rCB Rubber Project, we defined the demand outlook to amount 1 million metric tons per year ("1 mtpa" or "1.000 ktpa") by 2030¹. And 1 million tons seemed such a huge demand volume in a time where the supply volume was still quite tiny, some 10 times smaller.
Fast forward to 2025, we now observe the rCB supply volume larger, not smaller, than the rCB demand volume. What has happened and what does it mean for the industry?
rCB demand
Let's look at rCB demand first.
With my colleague Paul Ita at Notch Consulting, we just published the third edition of "Prospects for recovered Carbon Black", the only peer reviewed industry reference report² for circular tyre products from pyrolysis, recovered carbon black and tyre pyrolysis oil.
Our recovered carbon black demand forecast (which is slightly lower than the rCB Rubber outlook) has been extended to the year 2033. Our new rCB demand forecast for 2033 is 925 ktpa. We can say that the rCB demand is stable and growing, but it could grow even faster.
There are a couple of road blocks dampening the demand growth for rCB:
Incentives. Policy makers in western countries do not yet give the tire industry strong incentives and support for the inclusion of circular materials like rCB. The EU Circular Economy Action Plan asks for 25% recycled content in plastics by 2030. Similar targets are expected to be set for automotive polymers and also rubber & tires. Some non-tyre automotive rubber companies are already preparing for that objective. For sure, the major demand volume will come once the tire industry will have a 25% recycled content objective.
Consumer spending. Most consumers, apart from those few supercar drivers, still purchase tyres as something round, black and cheap. Tyres with circular content need to be desirable, affordable, but most of all available in order to drive rCB (and TPO) demand in the tyre value chain.
Available volume. While an average furnace carbon black production facility produces some 100 ktpa of carbon black, an average recovered carbon black production facility in 2025 only produces 6 ktpa of recovered carbon black (see Prospects for rCB 2024). This volume is insufficient even for a single car tyre production. To trigger wide adoption in the tyre industry, annual production volumes of 20+ ktpa rCB per supplier would be required.
Specifications. This of course is my pet topic. Without exact definitions what recovered carbon black is, it will be difficult to make any demand & supply forecasts. In our report and in the absence of an international ASTM standard (which might come very soon 😉), we are using my own 2021 rCB1 / rCB2 specifications.
Other green fillers. While 7 of of 11 tyre manufacturers say that they see rCB as instrumental for their sustainability journey (2021 survey by Wolfersdorff Consulting Berlin), it is also clear that the industry now has more choices for circular, renewable and CO2 reduced "green" fillers. Methane blacks play in the same semi-reinforcing carcass application range, while graphenes, nanotubes and rice husk silica rather target highly reinforcing tread applications. Who will win? A mixture of all? And can that mixture be recycled and put to circular use?
rCB supply
We have been closely monitoring the recovered carbon black supply and we have been profiling key rCB suppliers in our report for the last 3 years.
In the opening of the rCB Europe Conference 2024³, I forecasted a supply volume of 589 ktpa recovered carbon black by 2030. This was a preliminary supply figure and after the conference we have researched the industry deeper than ever before.
For the first time, we have included 3 Indian suppliers and 2 Chinese suppliers and we also have increased the number of supplier profiles from 23 to 32 companies.
In every business sector including recovered carbon black, China is about huge production capacities. This meant that with the inclusion of Chinese rCB volume, the recovered carbon black supply volume was bumped up significantly. Now, we could question whether Chinese rCB really is rCB, but the two producers we have included were the key contributors to the Chinese recovered carbon black specifications.
Of course we apply a lot of scrutiny on the rCB producers' supply volume projections which we include in our report. We think we have built a conservative assessment of the industry. Our forecasted supply of rCB by 2030 is 853 ktpa and the forecast volume curve flattens in 2030, because there are no projects announced yet beyond that year.
What are the key drivers for rCB supply?
Funding. No surprise. rCB is an instant industry, just add money. The most popular industry meme is "the money comes next week". It always does. After a quite slow 2023, there were some key industry investments which give us hope for an even better 2025. You will find a full industry investment overview in our report.
Product development. The second most popular industry meme is "Have you pre-sold your rCB?". This is quite impossible, but yet some companies managed to do it. These also were the companies which started construction of industrial facilities in 2024. Key to that was their product development and application engineering. Do you need help with your products? I can support and guide you through the product development cycle.
Specifications. It is not surprising to find specs in the supply list as well. The more precise we define rCB, the better suppliers can dial into the standardised quality and then, hopefully, different rCBs can be combined to achieve the supply volumes required by the tyre industry. Once the specifications are balloted by ASTM, I will also restart the "Top Carbon" programme again, a collaboration programme between rCB suppliers and rCB users.
Collateral support. While rCB with 40% mass output definitely is the key enabler for a sustainable and profitable operation of tyre pyrolysis, it is the TPO that attracts those companies to the industry that have the biggest spending budgets: Refineries and oil traders. In 2025, we see further transactions happening in the industry facilitated by oil trading companies.
Collaborations & ecosystems. Another key for rCB supply growth are collaborations & ecosystems. One company alone cannot manage all complexities of the circular economy, collaboration is the key for circularity.
Community. Last but not least to rCB supply growth is our community. With Smithers⁴, I have been building the rCB community since 2018 when I ran an rCB workshop at Carbon Black World 2018 in Düsseldorf. Our global rCB Conference community is now close to 500 colleagues. In 2025 we will meet again for rCB Asia in Thailand and for rCB Europe in Spain. And, I am sure that even at Carbon Black World 2025 in Fort Worth, we will be talking about rCB.
Summarising all these factors, it is safe to say that the next 5 years will be spectacular for the rCB industry. If you are overwhelmed by the complexity of the business, we can recommend you "Prospects for rCB 2024" as a great guide and starting point. And if you require deeper understanding and support, please enquire with Martin von Wolfersdorff or with Paul Ita for our custom consulting services.
¹ Paul and I actually forecasted 800 ktpa rCB demand, but the rCB Rubber team wanted to round that up to ambitious 1,000 ktpa rCB demand.
² Prospects for rCB is peer reviewed, meaning that Paul and I, two independent industry experts, carefully review all pieces of information from industry interviews with key contacts and we aggregate a reliable, authentic view on the rCB industry from this information.
³ Opening of rCB Europe 2024 on YouTube:https://bit.ly/41Qeau3
⁴ Smithers conferences:https://bit.ly/CB-world
Wishing you Salud, Amor y Plata in 2025!
Do you have questions or comments? Write us a comment! Let's start a dialogue👇
Prospects for recovered Carbon Black 2024 - August 2025 update
Wolfersdorff Consulting Berlin
